Despite lower earnings than three years ago, Patrick Industries (NASDAQ:PATK) investors are up 287% since then

It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For instance the Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK) share price is 263% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! Also pleasing for shareholders was the 15% gain in the last three months. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 11% in the last three months.

While this past week has detracted from the company’s three-year return, let’s look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years of share price growth, Patrick Industries actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 28% per year.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Given this situation, it makes sense to look at other metrics too.

Languishing at just 1.5%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. The revenue drop of 12% is as underwhelming as some politicians. What’s clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren’t matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Patrick Industries in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Patrick Industries’ TSR for the last 3 years was 287%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Patrick Industries provided a TSR of 13% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. It’s probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 25% over five years. It’s quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we’ve spotted with Patrick Industries .

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.