If you are considering what to do with Barrick Mining stock right now, you are not alone. This is one of those names that has made both value-seekers and momentum-traders pay attention. The past year saw Barrick notch an impressive 67.5% gain, and year-to-date the stock has more than doubled, with a staggering 105.0% return. Even over the past 30 days, Barrick’s share price has climbed by 11.1%, despite a soft patch in the last week with a 3.6% dip. While big swings in commodity stocks are nothing new, the story here is about more than just gold price chatter. Recent moves in the metals market and shifting investor appetite for inflation hedges have certainly played a role in Barrick’s performance. That 148.9% three-year return tells us long-term investors have been rewarded too, though the five-year gain is a more modest 36.9%.
With all these price swings, it is natural to ask: Is Barrick actually undervalued, or just less risky than before? Based on six classic checks, Barrick scores a 4 out of 6 on valuation, solidly in the undervalued camp but with a few key tests it just misses. Next, we will unpack what goes into these valuation methods and which ones matter most. At the end, I will walk you through an even smarter way to gauge whether the stock is genuinely a good buy or just looks cheap on paper.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model helps estimate a company’s true worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. In Barrick Mining’s case, this approach begins with the company’s recent Free Cash Flow, which is $1.43 Billion for the last twelve months. Analysts see impressive growth ahead, with forecasted Free Cash Flows expected to rise steadily over the coming years. Projections estimate around $3.36 Billion by 2029. Only the first five years of these estimates are based on analyst forecasts, while subsequent years are analytically extrapolated.
Using all this data and the two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity methodology, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic share value of $36.32. This figure sits approximately 9.9% above the current market price, suggesting Barrick Mining stock is somewhat undervalued according to this model.
Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Barrick Mining’s valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a go-to metric for valuing profitable companies, since it puts a company’s current share price into context with its earnings. For investors, a PE ratio is especially helpful because it quickly shows how much they’re paying for each dollar of earnings, which is a key consideration when comparing stocks within the same industry or sector.
Fair PE ratios are shaped by more than raw earnings. Expectations for future growth, the volatility of those earnings, and overall risk appetite in the market all play a role in determining what’s considered a reasonable or premium PE. Companies with higher growth prospects typically command higher multiples, while those seen as riskier might trade at a discount.
Barrick Mining currently trades at a PE ratio of 20.2x, just below the metals and mining industry average of 24.6x and beneath the peer average of 22.9x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Barrick comes in at 27.2x, reflecting a deeper analysis of the company’s earnings growth outlook, profitability, size, and risk level. Unlike a simple peer or industry comparison, the Fair Ratio adapts to Barrick’s specific characteristics, including its future performance expectations and market cap, offering a far more tailored valuation yardstick.
With Barrick’s actual PE ratio moderately below its Fair Ratio, the stock is not just keeping pace, it looks attractively valued on this front, neither significantly overpriced nor at a big discount for its fundamentals.
Earlier we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful tool that lets investors map their unique story of a company, combining personal perspectives on Barrick Mining’s future revenue, earnings, margins, and risks with dynamic financial forecasts and a calculated fair value.
This approach goes beyond numbers on a screen. Narratives allow you to link real-world events, company strategy, and economic shifts directly to Barrick’s projected performance. Available right on the Simply Wall St Community page, Narratives are already used by millions of investors to bring confidence and clarity to buy and sell decisions, comparing evolving fair value estimates to today’s share price.
What sets Narratives apart is their ability to adapt in real time, updating instantly when new news, earnings, or market changes occur. Your insights always reflect the latest reality. For example, one investor’s Narrative for Barrick might anticipate 4.5% annual revenue growth and assign a fair value of $20.44 per share, while another’s more aggressive view sees 20.2% growth and a fair value closer to $20.00. Narratives make it easy to compare, discuss, and decide which scenario matches your outlook, helping you invest smarter, not just faster.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
