Ascendis Pharma (NasdaqGS:ASND): Valuation Insights After TransCon CNP Application Advances European Approval Journey

Ascendis Pharma (NasdaqGS:ASND) just took a major step forward by submitting a Marketing Authorisation Application to the European Medicines Agency for its investigational product, TransCon CNP. This regulatory move signals tangible progress in expanding their rare disease portfolio.

See our latest analysis for Ascendis Pharma.

Ascendis Pharma’s regulatory milestone is catching investors’ interest, and the numbers back it up. The stock has achieved a 7% share price return over the past month and surged almost 52% year to date, with a robust total shareholder return of 63% in the past year. Momentum is clearly building as the company turns pipeline progress into market excitement.

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With the stock delivering impressive returns, the key question now is whether Ascendis Pharma is still undervalued or if markets have already priced in future growth. This presents investors with the question of whether there is a buying opportunity or not.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.7% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set at $245.61 compared to a last close of $209.55, analysts currently see upside potential if growth delivers as projected. The stage is set for a valuation story shaped by blockbuster product launches and bold profitability assumptions.

Regulatory progress and pipeline advancement, such as the priority review for TransCon CNP in achondroplasia and positive combination trial results, are paving the way for new blockbuster therapies and potential multi-billion EUR peak sales opportunities. This enhances future revenue growth and reduces revenue concentration risk.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what financial bets drive this optimism? The secret lies in jaw-dropping growth forecasts and ambitious margin improvements that analysts have built directly into their calculations. Discover exactly what numbers could turn Ascendis Pharma into one of the most talked about growth stories in biotech.

Result: Fair Value of $245.61 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there remain significant risks. These include the potential for increased competition or slower-than-expected commercial uptake, either of which could challenge the bullish case.

Find out about the key risks to this Ascendis Pharma narrative.

Another Perspective: Revenue Multiple Tells a Different Story

While optimism is high based on growth forecasts, looking at the company’s current price-to-sales ratio reveals a more cautious tale. Ascendis Pharma trades at 22.5x sales, which is much higher than the US Biotechs industry average of 10.1x and also above the fair ratio of 16.6x. This premium could mean the market is pricing in a lot of future success already. Could this set the stage for future disappointment, or does it simply show how much belief investors have in the business?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ascendis Pharma Narrative

Keep in mind, if you feel differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own take in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ascendis Pharma research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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