Cattle Futures Rebound As Tight US Supply Keeps Prices Firm
What’s going on here?
Cattle and feeder futures rallied on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as renewed supply concerns kept beef and pork prices historically elevated – even with slight recent dips.
What does this mean?
Last week’s dip in CME cattle futures, sparked by talk of a possible US–Mexico border reopening for cattle imports, quickly reversed when no changes materialized. The export ban on Mexican cattle, enforced due to screwworm parasite fears, continues to restrict US supply. That’s left beef prices still high compared to typical levels, as boxed beef holds firm despite some cooling from recent peaks. Pork has shown similar resilience, with lean hog futures ticking up even as USDA data suggests overall pork values are edging down thanks to weaker carcass cutout prices. Adding to the tension, the first reported case of bird flu in a Nebraska dairy herd has reignited market worries, making both producers and investors wary of fresh disease risks.
Why should I care?
For markets: Supply constraints keep traders on edge.
With beef and pork prices still holding above pre-pandemic levels, consumers and restaurants are feeling the pinch. Ongoing supply limits—driven by tight cattle herds and import restrictions—are supporting futures prices, keeping volatility high. And with new headlines about disease threats like Nebraska’s bird flu case, any policy or supply chain updates could send prices swinging, so traders will be glued to USDA updates and border decisions.
The bigger picture: No quick fix for American livestock supply.
A smaller US cattle herd and ongoing disease concerns are likely to keep meat markets tight for the foreseeable future. With Mexican imports still off the table and livestock health facing new threats, beef and pork buyers could be faced with high costs for longer. That means stubborn food price inflation may stick around, putting extra strain on households and food businesses alike.
