College football futures: Beck slides in Heisman race, Sayin among new favorites
New week, new favorite. Eight weeks of college football played, and we’ve had eight different frontrunners for the Heisman.
That said, Week 9 looks very similar to last week, with Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson steady in the top three. Swap out Carson Beck after a four-interception game against Louisville for Julian Sayin, and we’ve got a new look at the top.
If we’re talking purely pricing. not whether they’re deserving, here’s where I stand: none are a clear go, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking a shot on any of these top options. With eight different favorites through eight weeks, I just don’t see value.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +325 
Last week: +450
The price is simply too short. Mendoza continues to pair elite efficiency (73.5% completion, 21 TDs, 2 INTs) with big-game composure. He’s not a highlight reel but his control, accuracy and poise are Heisman-caliber. At +450 last week, he was perhaps worth the buy but at +325, you’re betting on perfection to continue, and there’s just too much volatility in the league to merit this ticket.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +350
Last week: +400
Alabama has found its rhythm, and Simpson is the reason. One interception through seven games, with wins over Georgia and Tennessee, has his stock rising fast. He’s become the SEC’s most consistent passer, and if Bama wins out, he’ll be in New York.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State +400
Last week: +1600
Ohio State’s sophomore phenom is heating up at the perfect time. After dismantling Wisconsin with 393 yards and 4 TDs, Sayin now ranks among the nation’s most efficient quarterbacks. His 80% completion rate and the Michigan game looms as his defining moment. But it’s about Ohio State being a complete unit rather than Sayin shining as the star.
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt +1000
Last week: +3000
The dual-threat senior is electric and a massive reason for Vanderbilt’s resurgence, but his 15 passing TDs and five rushing scores make him one of the most entertaining players in the country, just not quite Heisman territory. Even at +1000, you’re paying for a long shot that probably needs chaos ahead of him to even make the ceremony.
Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech +7500
Last week: +3000
I’m just here to call out the disrespect in these odds. King deserves far better. He and Pavia are cut from the same cloth, dual-threat quarterbacks built on efficiency, tempo and guts, not arm strength or stat-padding volume.
Pavia’s price movement reflects how bettors are catching on to him being the reason Vanderbilt is in the top 10 for the first time since 1947.
King, meanwhile, is more of a run-heavy chaos energy who plays with swagger. Ten rushing touchdowns through six games, close wins built on improvisation, and that “make something out of nothing” play style that defenses can’t game-plan for. His passing stats aren’t as polished as Pavia’s, but he’s the engine behind every Georgia Tech win, leading his team in carries, rushing yards and rushing scores.
The +7500 number only exists because Georgia Tech’s wins aren’t flashy, hidden behind the logo on the helmet, and yet this team is undefeated, top 10 in the rankings, and 7-0 for the first time since 1966.
With King behind center, GT is 12-5 ATS as an underdog since 2023, nine of those won outright — a clear reflection of his impact.
King will likely be an afterthought with Alabama, Indiana and Ohio State quarterbacks in the way, but he deserves recognition. Right now, he’s the most impactful player in college football and he still has a chance to further prove it with a home finale against Georgia and a possible shot to take GT to the ACC Championship game if not win the conference.
Top two in the national title odds
Ohio State +260
Last week +350
No movement at the top. For Ohio State, the odds (still) fit the profile. This (still) looks like the most complete team in the country right now. The Buckeyes have found its stride behind Julian Sayin’s calm command and a defense that’s playing fast, confident, and complete. Ohio State continues to be the blueprint. The offense hums, the defense closes, and I don’t even think we’ve seen what peak looks like. The move from +350 to +260 reflects that they’ve earned favorite status..
Alabama +650
Last week: +650
Listen, I’m a numbers analyst. When my eyes match the metrics, that’s where confidence builds. When the two are misaligned, that confidence fades. Bama could finish 11-1, likely should, and +650 to win is still a no for me. The Tide are better now, no question, but not complete enough yet to justify those odds.
The offense depends too heavily on Simpson’s arm, and the ground game still sputters when it matters, while the defense bends more than it should for a title contender.
That said, Alabama’s dangerous even when the data says they shouldn’t be. The numbers can measure efficiency, but they can’t quantify composure, and that’s often where Alabama beats the model.
Betting consideration: Ole Miss to make the playoff -120
The board is thin but this price for Ole Miss is playable. Parity has futures prices all over the place.
Assuming the Rebels win, they would move to 7-1 with their only loss coming to Georgia, a “good loss” that the committee tends to forgive when the rest of the résumé holds. And it would. A road win over a top-15 Oklahoma team with one of the best defensive fronts in the country would give Ole Miss that final credibility boost it’s been missing.
This is the toughest opponent left on their schedule. Oklahoma’s defense can disrupt any rhythm, with 28 sacks and relentless pressure, but Ole Miss’s balance and tempo have been the difference all year. They’re averaging nearly 500 yards a game, over 9 yards per pass, and they can lean on either Trinidad Chambliss or Kewan Lacy to finish drives. If this turns into a quarterback battle, I trust Chambliss more. Oklahoma hasn’t faced an offense with this much speed and spacing, and once Ole Miss finds rhythm, it’s usually over.
If you’re comfortable locking in a future, -120 for Ole Miss to make the playoff still offers value before this potential statement win. But if you want to stay patient, back Ole Miss this weekend as a short road underdog. If Ole Miss handles the Sooners the way the metrics suggest, that price won’t stay in minus territory much longer, it’ll flip to a heavy favorite by Sunday.
