EMEA Morning Briefing : Stock Futures Rise Amid AI Optimism

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Flash PMI for eurozone, Germany, France, U.K.; trading updates from Smiths Group, TUI, Kingfisher

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded higher early Tuesday. Asian stock benchmarks rose; the dollar was little changed; oil futures fell; while gold rose.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a higher open in European markets on Tuesday, with sentiment boosted by a tech-driven rally on Wall Street.

Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to fund an enormous data-center build-out. Even as AI mania has made stocks pricier than ever by some measures, Monday’s deal appeared to signal that the richly valued companies at the center of it all still think there is room to run.

Meanwhile, U.S. PMI data would likely be a focus for market participants to ascertain the U.S. economy’s health and project the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy easing this year.

“All attention today would be on the global PMIs due from across the G10 world including that of the U.S., U.K. and Eurozone,” Maybank said.

Forex:

The dollar consolidated amid mixed signals from Fed officials. New Fed governor Miran has been dovish, saying that the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the 2%-2.5% range, CBA’s Kristina Clifton said.

However, other Fed officials are cautious. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said the Fed “should tread cautiously with additional easing,” while Cleveland Fed President Hammack said she’s worried over the level and persistence of inflation, Clifton noted.

Bonds:

Investors are turning more positive on U.S. Treasurys again as tariff concerns ease, said The Wealth Alliance’s Robert Conzo.

“Instead of selling the U.S., many hedge funds employ a new concept–hedge U.S.,” Conzo said. “This revised U.S. Treasury strategy will continue to evolve as the tariff discussion plays out,” he said.

For the time being, Treasurys continue to offer attractive characteristics relative to other developed-market bonds, he said.

Energy:

Oil futures rose slightly early Tuesday as traders assessed mixed signals. Overall, crude oil’s outlook is “delicately balanced,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

On the one hand, there are resilient demand pockets, led by China. On the other hand, there’s an oversupplied global market that could overwhelm buyers if demand growth continues to cool, Razaqzada said.

Metals:

Gold was steady in Asia, supported by hopes for more Fed rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver comments on the U.S. economy later today.

The precious metal hit another record high overnight, building on momentum from last week’s Fed rate cut and guidance that further easing is likely as the labor market weakens, FFA Kings’ Fadi Al Kurdi said.

“Expectations of continued monetary loosening have reinforced demand for the non-yielding asset,” he added.

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The copper market is weighing further supply disruptions to the base metal, ANZ Research said. Operations at the world’s second-largest mine, Grasberg in Indonesia’s Central Papua, remains suspended as a search operation continues for missing workers after a mud flow incident.

A prolonged suspension at Grasberg is likely to quickly tighten the global copper market, ANZ said.

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Iron ore declined in Asia. On the demand side, Chinese steel mills are seeing declining margins and slowing production amid moderate downstream demand, Nanhua Futures said.

This has led to an accumulation of inventories, albeit at a slower rate than before, it added.

TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES

The Fed Finally Cut Rates-Now What? Powell Could Offer Clues on Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks on the U.S. economy Tuesday at an event hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, just one week after the central bank approved its first interest-rate cut of 2025.

Powell is scheduled to speak at 12:35 p.m. Eastern Time during the chamber’s economic luncheon in Warwick, R.I. A question-and-answer session will follow his prepared remarks.

EU, Indonesia Set to Seal Trade Deal After Years of Talks

Indonesia and the European Union are set to sign a long-awaited trade deal that comes as Asian countries reposition themselves in a landscape reshaped by U.S. tariffs.

The economic agreement, which Jakarta has been negotiating with the EU since July 2016, will be signed during European Commissioner for Trade & Economic Security Maro? ef?ovi?’s ongoing visit to Indonesia, said a spokesperson for Indonesia’s economic affairs ministry.

Gold hit another record high. Has it formed a bubble yet?

Gold may be showing signs of a bubble formation – with prices on Monday scoring their 36th record high of the year so far – but not all analysts are convinced that the precious metal has overextended its rally.

The yellow metal has been rallying since mid-2023 and has been reaching consistent all-time highs since then, wrote Brett Friedman, Winhall Risk Analytics/OptionMetrics contributor, in a recent note. That has come as many see gold as the “perfect investment at the perfect time” – thriving off fear and uncertainty around inflation, currency debasement, debt, conflict and socioeconomic anxiety, he said.

Wealth Tax Stages Comeback in France

PARIS-France’s slide into political and fiscal dysfunction is generating a groundswell of support for a sweeping wealth tax that would represent a radical break from the pro-business agenda of President Emmanuel Macron.

The proposal is the work of French economist Gabriel Zucman, a former adviser to U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. He wants to impose a 2% tax on the assets of people with net wealth of 100 million euros, equivalent to $118 million, or more.

Budweiser Maker Is Teaming Up With Netflix. It Needs a Wider Audience to Boost Slumping Sales.

Anheuser-Busch InBev, the maker of iconic beer brand Budweiser, announced Monday that it’s formed a partnership with streaming platform Netflix to help its brands better reach global consumers.

AB InBev said it will collaborate with Netflix across a variety of its shows, such as The Gentlemen (from the U.K.), Brasil 70-A Saga do Tri (from Brazil), and Culinary Class Wars (from South Korea). The campaigns will include consumer activations, title integrations, limited-edition packaging, digital promotions, and more, according to the firm.

How Nvidia Is Backstopping America’s AI Boom

Nvidia’s move to invest $100 billion into OpenAI to help finance a historic data center build-out has helped reset market expectations about the startup’s shaky finances. It’s a familiar play by the chip giant.

Chief Executive Jensen Huang has repeatedly sought to leverage the enormous confidence investors have in Nvidia’s future to help strengthen the company’s supply chain partners. It has used its balance sheet clout to keep the AI boom humming through deals, partnerships and investments in companies that are among its top customers, including cloud-computing provider CoreWeave, rival chip designer Intel and xAI.

Heineken Buys Central American Assets in $3.2 Billion Deal

Heineken is buying beverage and retail businesses from a Costa Rican company in a $3.2 billion deal to grow its presence in Central America.

The Dutch brewer said Monday that it will acquire the assets from Florida Ice and Farm Company, a company with operations across Central America, the Dominican Republic and Mexico.

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Expected Major Events for Tuesday

04:30/NED: 2Q GDP – 2nd estimate

05:00/FIN: Aug Labour force survey, incl unemployment

07:00/SPN: Jul Trade Balance

07:00/SWI: 2Q Balance of Payments

07:15/FRA: Sep France Flash PMI

07:30/GER: Sep Germany Flash PMI

07:30/SWE: Swedish repo rate announcement

08:00/POL: Aug Agricultural prices

08:00/EU: Sep Eurozone Flash PMI

08:00/POL: Aug Unemployment

08:30/UK: Sep Flash UK PMI

10:00/UK: Sep CBI Industrial Trends Survey

12:00/HUN: Sep Hungarian interest rate decision

16:59/SPN: 2Q Quarterly Balance of Payments

17:59/POR: Jul ICSG Copper Report

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-23-25 0015ET