Iron Ore Futures Dip On China Data, But Hold Quarterly Gains

What’s going on here?

Iron ore futures dipped after China’s latest manufacturing data disappointed again, though prices are still set to notch hefty gains this quarter.

What does this mean?

China is the world’s largest buyer of iron ore, so the health of its factories is front and center for commodity markets. The latest official figures marked six straight months of contraction for Chinese manufacturing, dragging down iron ore futures – the Dalian contract slipped 0.45% to 782 yuan ($109.73) a ton, while Singapore’s held near $105.25. Still, both are clocking notable quarterly gains, up nearly 10% and over 12% so far, thanks mostly to midsummer rallies fueled by stronger export demand in July and August. While export orders finally ticked up for the first time since March, Citi analysts warn the momentum may not last if steelmakers keep feeling the pinch on profits. A private survey did spark some optimism by showing factory activity inching higher, but whether that will boost appetite for steel – and the iron ore that feeds it – remains to be seen.

Why should I care?

For markets: Quarterly strength hides daily swings.

Iron ore’s rally this quarter stands out, even as demand signals from China stay lukewarm. Volatility ran rampant this month, with other steelmaking inputs like coking coal and coke tumbling alongside steel products. For investors, it’s a reminder that commodities can swing sharply on shifts in Chinese demand or policy, so weighing day-to-day moves against bigger trends in the world’s factory is key.

The bigger picture: Policy’s influence runs deep.

China’s steel sector is being shaped by more than just market forces – government policies are playing a powerful role. Goldman Sachs analysts say recent improvements in industry profits reflect efforts to rein in fierce competition. And with production picking up in major hubs like Tangshan, the push-and-pull between slimmer margins and resilient output highlights how policy choices in China ripple across global supply chains.