Recursion (RXRX) Stock Surges on AI-Driven Breakthroughs and Big-Pharma Deals

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX) is a Salt Lake City–based clinical-stage “TechBio” biotech that uses AI, automation and massive biological datasets to speed drug discovery ^[1]. In early October 2025 the stock showed wild swings: it plunged to the mid-$5s then rebounded ~16% on Oct 8 after an AI-focused tech conference and pipeline news ^{[2] [3]}. As of mid-day Oct 16, RXRX trades around $6.5, having closed at ~$6.79 on Oct 16 ^[4]. This volatility reflects renewed investor interest in Recursion’s AI platform and upcoming trial readouts.

Key Facts

• Stock Price (Oct 16, 2025): ~$6.5 (intraday; closed $6.79 on Oct 16 ^[5]). 52-week range has been roughly $3.97–$10.87 ^[6].
• Volume Spike: ~86.9 million shares traded on Oct 16 (about 216% above prior session) ^[7]. Recent days saw unusually heavy volume as investors reposition ahead of company news.
• Recent Rally: Shares jumped ~16% on Oct 8 (to ~$6.08) after CEO Chris Gibson gave a keynote on AI in Dubai ^{[8] [9]}. The stock was down year-to-date before the Oct rally (roughly 20–30% off 2024 highs) ^{[10] [11]}.
• Q2 2025 Financials: Revenue $19.2M (up 33% YoY) driven by a $7M Sanofi milestone ^[12]; net loss widened to $171.9M ^[13]. Cash on hand was ~$534M (runway into late 2027) ^[14]. R&D spend jumped (partly due to Tempus data and the Exscientia merger) ^[15].
• Pipeline Focus: Oncology and rare diseases. Key internal candidates include REC-1245 (oral RBM39 degrader for tumors) and REC-617 (CDK7 inhibitor for ovarian cancer) ^[16]. The chart below (Recursion’s own slide) shows these in early trials and others in preclinical stages. Major new assets: REC-102 (ENPP1 inhibitor) licensed in July 2025 for hypophosphatasia ^[17] and REC-4881 (MEK1/2 inhibitor) for familial adenomatous polyposis. Several older programs have been cut to concentrate on the most promising projects ^[18].
• Partnerships & M&A: Recursion’s strategy relies on collaborations. Its ongoing deals include Sanofi (multi-target oncology/immunology, >$130M in payments to date) ^[19], Roche/Genentech (neuroscience and GI-oncology programs) ^[20], Bayer, Takeda, and Merck KGaA (various targets) ^{[21] [22]}. Recursion also acquired UK AI-drug startup Exscientia in late 2024 (~$630M all-stock deal) ^[23] to bolster its tech platform.
• AI Initiatives: The company co-developed the open-source Boltz-2 AI model with MIT and NVIDIA, a molecular binding predictor that is ~1000x faster than traditional methods ^[24]. Recursion claims its “Recursion OS” platform – combining lab automation, AI and massive data – can compress drug discovery timelines (e.g. concept-to-trial in ~18 months vs ~42 months industry average) ^{[25] [26]}.
• Analyst Views: Mixed sentiment. Needham (Sept 2025) reiterates a Buy rating with a $8 price target ^[27]. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have Holds (~$4.8 and $8 targets) ^[28]. Weiss Ratings recently tagged RXRX a “Sell (D-)” ^[29]. Overall, 2 Buys, 6 Holds and 1 Sell cover the stock ^[30]. Consensus price targets are roughly $6.5–$7, near the current price ^{[31] [32]} (implying modest upside).
• Recent Events: In June 2025 Recursion announced a ~20% workforce reduction to cut costs. CEO Gibson said the goal is to “reduce complexity” so each dollar “drives real return on investment” ^[33]. The restructuring should help lower annual cash burn (target < $450M in 2025 vs $606M in 2024) ^{[34] [35]}. Management projects runway into Q4 2027 (effectively “break-even in runway planning” by late 2027) ^{[36] [37]}.

Recent Stock Performance

Recursion’s share price has been unusually volatile in October 2025. On Oct 7 the stock fell about 5.4% to ~$5.23 amid a broader market slide ^[38]. The very next day (Oct 8) it surged ~16% to ~$6.08 ^{[39] [40]}, likely fueled by investor enthusiasm ahead of CEO Gibson’s AI presentation. By mid-week (Oct 13–15) the rally continued; RXRX closed Oct 16 at $6.79 (up 15.3% that day) ^[41]. This three-day winning streak was noted by Insider Monkey, which attributed the jump to Gibson’s keynote at a major AI conference in Dubai ^[42].

Trading volume has been heavy. MarketBeat reports 86.9 million shares traded on Oct 16 (216% above the prior day) ^[43]. Technical indicators are mixed: the 50-day moving average (~$5.1) is still below the 200-day (~$5.8) ^[44], suggesting the stock may not be overbought yet. Year-to-date RXRX is still well below its late-2024 peak; even after the recent bounce it sits roughly in the middle of its 52-week range ^[45].

For context, Recursion is still pre-revenue (no approved products) and burns cash on R&D. TechStock² notes that without an FDA-approved drug, the company’s narrative relies on its AI platform and partnerships ^[46]. Indeed, CEO Gibson is leveraging every public appearance to reinforce that story: “The power of our platform not only allows us to discover and develop potential new medicines, but also gives us insights on patient populations…” he said on the Q2 earnings call, citing AI models like Boltz-2 as a key advantage ^[47].

Business and Technology Updates

Recursion’s Q2 2025 results (reported Aug 5, 2025) showed solid revenue growth but widening losses ^[48]. Revenue was $19.2M (up 33% YoY) thanks in part to a $7M milestone from Sanofi ^[49]. R&D spending jumped (to $128.6M) as the company beefed up its AI platform and closed the Exscientia merger ^[50]. Net loss widened to $171.9M ^[51]. Cash was $533.8M at June 30, 2025, down from $603M in Dec 2024 ^[52], but management reiterated that this should fund operations into late 2027 ^[53]. The company has no product revenue yet, so all funding – including partnership payments – is being funneled into trials and AI development ^{[54] [55]}.

Recursion’s pipeline now focuses on priority oncology and rare-disease programs. Several non-core Phase II trials were cut in 2025, with resources redirected to higher-potential candidates ^[56]. Chief R&D Officer Najat Khan highlighted two lead candidates on the Aug 5 call: “REC-1245, our potential first-in-class RBM39 degrader…” and “REC-617 (our CDK7 inhibitor)… Early data show strong activity in tumors…” ^[57]. The company’s pipeline slide (below) shows both of these in Phase 1/2, along with other early programs.

Partnerships remain crucial. As of Q2, Recursion has active collaborations with Sanofi (multi-target oncology/immunology) – Sanofi has already paid over $130M in upfront/milestones and hit a $7M milestone in Q2 (its fourth discovery milestone in 18 months) ^[58]. It also works with Roche/Genentech (neuroscience and GI oncology phenomics), Bayer (precision oncology against “undruggable” targets) and Merck KGaA (cancer and immunology targets) ^{[59] [60]}. These deals provide funding and validation for Recursion’s pipeline ^{[61] [62]}.

On the technology side, Recursion has been aggressive. In November 2024 it acquired Exscientia, a UK AI-driven drug discovery company, for about $630 million in stock ^[63]. This added Exscientia’s AI expertise and candidate drugs. In June 2025, Recursion (with MIT) open-sourced Boltz-2, a next-generation AI model for predicting molecular binding that can screen compounds ~1000× faster than traditional methods ^[64]. CEO Gibson emphasizes that such computational tools, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, are at the heart of Recursion’s mission.

Market and Analyst Sentiment

Wall Street sentiment on RXRX is cautiously mixed. According to MarketBeat and TipRanks data, 2 analysts rate it a Buy and 6 a Hold (1 Sell) ^{[65] [66]}. Needham analyst Gil Blum (Sept 2025) reiterated a Buy with an $8 target ^[67], citing Recursion’s leadership in AI-driven drug discovery and a large proprietary data advantage ^[68]. In contrast, Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight, $5 PT) and Bank of America ($8 PT) take a more conservative view ^[69]. The average price target among analysts is roughly $6.5–$7 ^[70], implying only modest upside from current levels unless trial results exceed expectations.

Some market commentators urge caution. CNBC’s Jim Cramer quipped recently that Recursion has “done absolutely nothing” so far and needs proof of concept via clinical data ^[71]. Indeed, without any drugs yet on the market, Recursion remains a high-risk, high-reward play: analysts note strong revenue growth but steep losses (forward P/E is deeply negative) ^[72]. On the other hand, industry observers point out that regulators are increasingly receptive to AI/ in silico methods – the FDA has encouraged using computational models and reducing animal tests in drug development ^[73] – which could favor Recursion’s approach.

Expert Commentary

Recursion’s management and external experts have been vocal. CEO Chris Gibson has publicly discussed how AI underpins Recursion’s strategy. On the Q2 call he said: “The power of our platform… gives us insights on patient populations to target… In discovery, we’re deploying advanced models like Boltz-2 to rapidly design ligands…” ^[74]. Similarly, Chief R&D Officer Najat Khan noted that early data (e.g. a partial responder in REC-617) are encouraging signs for their AI-designed drugs ^[75].

Analysts echo the platform’s promise but warn that data will be key. Needham’s Blum emphasized upcoming readouts (e.g. from the REC-617 ovarian cancer trial and FAP program) as catalysts ^[76]. At the same time, DirectorStalk comments that despite 33% revenue growth, Recursion’s path to profitability is long: no products, heavy R&D spend, and deep losses ^[77]. The consensus forecast? With current price targets averaging the mid-$6s, analysts see upside only if Recursion hits major milestones – otherwise the stock could remain range-bound or volatile.

In short, RXRX is back in the spotlight as an AI-biotech story. Its recent share surge reflects investor excitement over AI and new partnerships ^{[78] [79]}, but experts stress that Recursion still needs proof of its technology in the clinic. For more on the recent rally and strategy, see TechStock²’s report (“Recursion Stock Skyrockets…Big Pharma Deals” ^[80]) and Insider Monkey’s analysis of the Oct 15 Dubai AI event ^[81].

Sources: Company press releases and SEC filings; market data from Nasdaq and MarketBeat ^[82]; financial news and analyst reports ^{[83] [84] [85] [86] [87]}. These include the TechStock² (ts2.tech) coverage and other recent articles cited above.

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