US wheat futures slip after USDA boosts global ending stocks

Key takeaways:

• US wheat futures declined as the USDA’s September WASDE report revealed a 25-million-bushel cut in ending stocks for 2025/26, while output projections remained steady at 1.927 billion bushels.
• Chicago SRW, Kansas HRW and Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures all saw price drops, with December contracts slipping by 4 cents, less than 1 cent and 3 cents per bushel, respectively.
• Global wheat futures showed mixed trends, with French milling wheat rising slightly, Australian prices holding steady and Russian offers softening amid increased export tariffs and stable bids.

Wheat futures: Price movements across US markets

The USDA trimmed its US ending stocks forecast, while leaving the country’s output projection unchanged in the report published on Friday September 12.

By 1pm US Eastern time, the Chicago soft red winter (SRW) December futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade had decreased by 4 cents per bu to $5.18 per bu, and the March contract slipped by 3 cents per bu to $5.35 per bu.

The Kansas hard red winter (HRW) December futures contract slipped by less than 1 cent per bu to $5.09 per bu. The December contract also dipped by less than 1 cent per bu to $5.29 per bu.

The Minneapolis hard red spring December futures contract declined by 3 cents per bu to $5.69 per bu, with the March futures contract falling by 2 cents per bu to $5.89 per bu.

Global wheat markets: Europe, Australia and Russia

The December French milling wheat contract on the Euronext rose by €0.25 per tonne to settle at €189.75 ($222.58) per tonne at 6:30pm Central European time, while the March contract increased by €0.25 per tonne to €195.75 per tonne.

In Australia, no major changes were seen in terms of price, with December loading Australian standard white (ASW) heard offered at high $240s per tonne FOB Western Australia, around the same level heard earlier this week, but trade sources keep saying that more focus is on January loading amid the expected delay in harvest.

In Russia, selling ideas for 12.5% wheat were heard slightly lower at $228-230 per tonne FOB Novorossiysk-Taman-Tuapse (NTT) for loading in September-October, with bids stable at $225-226 per tonne FOB NTT.

Offers for 12.5% wheat on a CIF Mediterranean basis stood at $251-253 per tonne for October loading dates, and offers to Egypt were reported at $249-250 per tonne CIF for October-November loading, also slightly lower day on day.

The Russian government further increased the wheat export tariff by 327.30 rubles per tonne and set it at 495.90 rubles per tonne, which is equivalent to $5.79 per tonne.

The wheat base price published by the Moscow Exchange was slightly lower by 30 cents per tonne to $226.30 per tonne FOB Black Sea.

Ukraine market trends and domestic stability

In Ukraine, offers for 11.5% wheat were heard at $228-232 per tonne on an FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) basis for September-October loading. Only a few bids were indicated at $225-226 per tonne FOB POC for October.

“Some sellers [are] still holding out levels above $230 per tonne FOB POC, but that’s unrealistic — just sellers’ wishful thinking. There are volumes that have already been sold; so, they’re hoping to catch someone desperate who will buy on the spot market,” a trader said.

Selling ideas into the East Mediterranean destination was reported at $250 per tonne CIF for September-October, with bids to the same destination at $246-247 per tonne CIF. Buying ideas into Algeria were heard at $250 per tonne CIF for October-November loading.

For feed wheat, offers were seen at $220 per tonne for October loading, with bids $1 higher day on day at $216 per tonne.

The domestic market in Ukraine was also stable and firm, with bids for 11.5% still at $213-218 per tonne CPT POC, and at $202-204 per tonne, which corresponds to $222-227 per tonne and $211-213 per tonne respectively on an FOB basis.

Wheat futures: European and Black Sea offers

In the EU Black Sea, FOB Constanta 12.5% wheat was indicated offered around $237-238 per tonne for October loading. Traders said liquidity remains an issue, with some traders short and facing difficulties in securing new crop volumes from farmers.

In Europe, French 11% protein wheat was offered at a premium of €4-5 per tonne to the December Euronext wheat contract, with no trades reported.

French barley was offered on an FOB basis for October loading €1 per tonne below the December Euronext wheat contract.

Polish FOB 12.5% wheat on for October loading was offered €7 per tonne above the December Euronext wheat contract.

The German 12.5% FOB wheat APM for October loading was assessed €6 per tonne above the December Euronext contract, with no indications received to disprove the previous assessment. No data was excluded.

Ending US stockpiles for the 2025/26 crop year were expected to total 844 million bushels (22.97 million tonnes), according to the September WASDE.

This figure was 25 million bu lower than the 869 million bu projected in August.

The ending stocks estimate for 2025/26 was lower than the 866.29 million bu expected by analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets before the release of the report.

US wheat output was expected to total 1.927 billion bu in 2025/26, unchanged from the August WASDE report.

North and South American trends

The 11% FOB US Gulf HRW premiums were unchanged, with October at $1.10 per bu over the December Kansas HRW futures contract and November at $1.20 per bu above the same underlying contract.

The 10.5% FOB US Gulf SRW front-month premiums were steady, with October at 90 cents per bu over December Chicago SRW futures and November at $1.10 per bu over the same underlying contract.

The 10% FOB Pacific Northwest soft white wheat market edged higher, with October falling by $1.00 per bu to $230.00 per bu. November increased by $1.00 per bu to $231.75 per bu.

Canada western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver front-month premiums were unchanged, with October at $1.40 per bu over the December Chicago Board of Trade futures contract, while November was at $1.35 per bu over the same underlying contract.

Canadian durum prices were unchanged, with 14.5% wheat FOB Vancouver cargoes at $280 per tonne and FOB St Lawrence cargoes at $290 per tonne.

In Argentina, October offers declined by $4 per tonne to $226 per tonne, while bids were seen at $220 per tonne. December new crop offers slipped by $3 per tonne to $217 per tonne, while bids were unchanged at $213 per tonne.

Want to better understand the forces shaping the wheat market? Visit our hub for the latest news and insights.